• ISCRIVITI ALLA NEWSLETTER

The African-American guy who’s responsible for the 2008 miracle tries to make it happen again. But it won’t be easy. When a President in office runs for a second term he has to double his success, summing up what he accomplished in the last three and a half years. That’s the meaning of the Obama campaign, where the claim “Forward” has replaced “Change” and “Hope”. Continuity rather than change and hope.

The emotional load that brought Obama to the White House, the wind that made him sail through the 2008 election, all of this expired now. Crisis, unemployment rate, evictions are a hard load to sustain. So, back to the politics of the possible, as one could expect. Yet Obama has tried to rekindle the fire of the dream, talking bravely about particular subjects, as when he came out in favour of gay marriage. But the truth comes from the American middle-class kitchen table – and we are not speaking of George Clooney and Sarah Jessica Parker’s kitchens, where dinners in honour of the President had been hosted to raise money for the campaign.

A black and white campaign, to see the first official commercials. It’s all about going forward for Obama while, according to the White House, Romney’s campaign fosters a return to the past. 2008 Technicolor dreams turned into black and white, reminding us of the Oscar-winning movie “The Artist”. The past is always pictured in black and white on movies and TV. The future is uncertain and grey. And not just metaphorically speaking: we are seeing a flood of black and white commercials. Everywhere, it’s all about the past.

A terrible Republican primaries season, some political uncertainties, several rethinks. None of this – not even the Mormon Church membership – has cut Romney off. He is basing his campaign on his success as a businessman, his financial career, and the Monopoly-player curriculum vitae that made him rich. His campaign focuses almost exclusively on economy while Obama tries to to broaden horizons. Romney forces the President to compete on the ground of facts and numbers, leaving aside all thoughts of regeneration. Now, just at the beginning of this long election season, Obama cannot but enter the enemy territory. He will be broadcasting a 25 million dollars worthy commercial in the nine decisive States. The 60-seconds commercial, while pretending to face the economic issue, takes refuge in a better future, out of the plague of this long crisis, the worst since the Great Depression.

To enter the White House again Obama cannot count only on women, young people, African Americans and Latinos. He needs to attract the Independents, the invisible third party – mostly white and middle-class – that will decide the elections. Obama has to visit other factories than the usual Marchionne’s Chrysler, where he is already part of the family. He should be a working-class hero, play less golf and discourage Michelle and his daughters to go on vacation in Europe. Along with Michelle, he should go more often on TV since the raise-funding campaign is not going as well as expected.

Wall Street is abandoning him because they found in Romney a more profitable face than McCain, an old warrior poorly educated in economics whose Americans were afraid when crisis exploded. Now they have Romney, the one who – as he would state in every TV commercial – has created tens of thousands of jobs. The Democrats question this but, whether it’s true or false, he’s making it work both personally and politically. It’s not something to hide: wealth is common to many Americans, especially to American Presidents.

70% of TV commercials are negative. Especially Romney’s commercials are, maybe because he is the challenger and wants to force Obama to fight on his ring. But Obama’s campaign must be able to dance around Romney like Muhammad Ali did with Sonny Liston. On the corners of the ring, there are new coaches: “behavioural scientists”, a new specie that is becoming popular in political advertising. They suggest a gentle therapy to persuade the undecided. Soothing them rather than attacking them with negative ads about the opponent. Praising their political and social sensitivity. Giving them information rather than launching attacks. Open up new scenarios, starting with real needs. A more sophisticated approach that has proven successful in local elections, where the winner was the one who was able to develop deep – while seemingly elusive – strategies. A new electoral strategy aiming at identifying particular geographical areas in the four key States and addressing them with customized campaigns about local issues.

So it’s all about creating local campaigns rather general expensive campaigns that fail to interest historically aligned states. What is most impressing so far is the Obama commercial that shows workers sacked after Romney bought and then closed down a steel factory. When we are told a story, starting with the main characters, our attention is caught. But when a commercial is just a sum of negative quotes of the opponent, we move on, even when we agree with it.

We still hope to be surprised, be caught up, and dream in Technicolor during these elections. We are tired of black and white advertising.